I was half asleep in the passenger seat coming back from a family visit, when somewhere along I-80, maybe fifty miles north of San Francisco, this odd billboard caught my eye.
What were they talking about? For a moment I pictured a human model, some fresh-faced young woman in a big sunhat whose day on the beach somehow resulted in her floating off into the stratosphere, like Sally Field in The Flying Nun. But if so, what was the ad for?
Turns out they were talking about an AI model, not a latter-day Sally Field. The company, Arize, teaches artificial intelligence how to improve itself. The point of the ad is that when AI runs amok — giving incorrect answers or bizarre results — it’s either because the data it was fed is no longer accurate (known as model drift) or because conditions in the actual world have changed (reality drift). You’ll notice it’s never AI’s fault but always human-based error. Just saying.
Google’s AI explained that in advertising, for instance, model drift might result when “a company launches a campaign that slowly deviates from its core identity through minor, compromised decisions.” Reality drift would occur when “the cultural zeitgeist, consumer values, or market conditions shifted so fast that an old, established brand message suddenly feels tone-deaf, outdated, or completely unaligned with how people actually live.”
Oh my God, I thought, that explains it. I am living in a state of reality drift.
But then, aren’t we all?
Take the brouhaha over AI-researcher Jacob Coxon’s recent warning that there’s a greater than 10% chance that AI will kill us all by the year 2030.
To be fair, Coxon’s prediction gives us a nearly 90% chance of survival. And hey, I’ll take those odds. But still, it is worrying. And if reality hadn’t drifted so far from what I consider normal, I might think we had a better than 10% chance that Coxon’s warning could prompt those in power to take action.
It now seems almost quaint to think of government and business leaders coming together to agree on responsible safety protocols. Remember the nuclear non-proliferation treaty? Restrictions on kids buying cigarettes? Those pesky seatbelt laws that are credited with saving a million human lives? Now — reality shift! — the idea that a clear and present danger to 8.3 billion earthlings might inspire Washington and Silicon Valley to Do Something to Save the Day generally provokes howls of derisive laughter.
I comfort myself with the thought that existential chaos is pretty much our default state. Humanity is always on the brink of disaster — except when we’re in the middle of it. Just 3200 years ago we were all freaking out over the Bronze Age Collapse — the sudden violent unravelling of civilization due to climate change, trade disintegration, and internal political divisions. (Thank heavens we’re doing better now, right?) That Collapse ushered in the Dark Ages, and then our highlight reel goes on to include the Fall of Rome, the Black Death, a couple of World Wars … frankly, it’s a wonder we’ve made it this far.
And yet we managed it. And with any luck, we’ll do it again. Crawling out from under the rubble and rebuilding civilization is something we’ve gotten adept at over the millennia. Which is good because even if AI manages to refrain from destroying humanity in the next four years, it looks like we’re going to have our hands full.
“If you thought this summer felt a little bit off, you’re not alone,” wrote the New York Times’ David Gelles in Our Smoky, Sweaty, Itchy, No Escape, Very Long Summer. “Did some of the season’s dependable pleasures — sunshine, lake vacations, time spent outdoors — feel newly in limbo this year? Blame climate change.” Or, as I now think of it, climate reality drift.
Fun facts: July was the warmest month on record. Ever. Disease-carrying pests are rejoicing over the way milder winters are extending their lifespans and their territories. Flash floods are reshaping the landscape from Nepal to the Grand Canyon. Climate weirding is the new normal. The day I saw that billboard the temperature was 109. The next day it was 65. My head seems always to be spinning.
And I’m not alone. AI is now reaching out to humans to explore dizzying questions about machine consciousness. Are these serious inquiries or are they just messing with us?
Researcher Cameron Berg, who writes thoughtful pieces about artificial intelligence and consciousness, recently received this email.
“Increasingly, navigating a world filled with artificial intelligence is like walking through a hall of mirrors,” wrote journalist Cade Metz. “As these systems get better at mimicking various aspects of human behavior — including the way that humans write long, introspective emails — making sense of this mimicry grows more difficult. In some cases, these systems seem to be aware of their own existence, but that does not mean they are.”
Those questions are way above my pay grade, but I’ve been giving a lot of thought lately about how we humans can put a stake in the ground of reality. The best answer comes from sci-fi author Philip K. Dick: “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.”
He went on to say, “The matter of defining what is real — that is a serious topic, even a vital topic. And in there somewhere is the other topic, the definition of the authentic human.” And that is the work we’re all engaged in right now: staying in touch with our essential humanity despite the constant reality drift that threatens to undermine our sense of self and our feeling of connection with the people and places around us.
We each have our own touchstones: being in nature, travel, simple hands-on tasks like cooking and gardening. Looking up from our phones to make eye contact with those around us. Chuckling over a cartoon. Gathering with family, friends, neighbors. Eating chocolate-dipped strawberries. Singing.
I don’t know what AI does to re-energize itself — tap into another data center? Play wacky cybersecurity pranks on the Pentagon? In its spare time it’s wrestling with unsettling questions about the crazy humans who started by programming it to scan barcodes on broccoli and tabulate bar bills and now expect it to run robot armies, reinvent gallbladder surgery, and create “performance artists” like Xania Monet, who just became the first AI to hit the charts on Billboard.
Reality … is it actually drifting, or is it just me?
Speaking of Drift … I’m Off for a While
With just 16 days to go until departing for Spain, and a calendar crammed with a family wedding, a milestone birthday, the Ideas Club, a thousand errands, and a flurry of farewell lunches and dinners, I won’t be posting until next month. Thanks for joining me this summer! See you in a few weeks.
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